Beware of Stories too Good to Be True

I recently saw a study that 52 percent of Democrats believe Russia interfered with vote tallies in the presidential election. There is of course, no evidence of vote tally manipulation. There is plenty of evidence of other shenanigans - fake news, hacked emails of the DNC, John Podesta and his lack of understanding of how passwords work etc. But there is zero evidence that Russia - or anyone - hacked voting machines or vote totals. Since the original tweeter seemed to be isolating Democrats, I tweeted, "Conspiracies theories are not subject to the left/right partisan divide. We are all susceptible." (see pic).

The author of the tweet (Kapil Khetan) subsequently accused me (perhaps facetiously) of saying each side was equally gullible and lectured me on my PC'ness. To be fair, saying each side was equally gullible is is exactly what I said - and I meant it!

Actively Studied Topic - Conspiracy and Paranoia. 

As it happens, this is not just the Muse poking at Mr. Khetan (with my apologies to all his settlers). The topic is well known in political science and many studies including very broad surveys have been used to show that conspiracy and paranoia is a general human trait that bridges many gaps - left vs. right, educated vs. non-educated, age, etc.

If I had to pick one for you I would direct you to Oliver and Wood's study titled "Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion" from the 2014 American Journal of Political Science. It's en excellent study with few holes in it. According to the authors the greatest predictor of susceptibility to conspiracy theories is a belief in unseen forces and a Manichean world view (roughly - a belief in good or evil). This rolls up a sizable majority of human kind.

The idea of a strong "good vs. evil" vibe being a precursor to being a conspiracy buff rings true if you think about interactions around conspiracies. Conspiracies are used to bludgeon the "other" side - indeed to "otherize" the other side and turn them into an evil force with hidden motives and byzantine machinations.  Folks are never quite so passionate when arguing from objective facts right?

How do you avoid conspiracies?

The Muse rule of thumb is simple. When you really want to believe something because it fits your view of the opposing side ("they" are stupid, bad, want to take my money, want to disenfranchise minorities etc etc ad infinitum), it's time to step back and use your thinking cap. You may conclude that something is indeed true after objecvive analysis - but you may also find yourself saying "how did I almost buy that?"

The men and women the Muse trusts the most are the ones that have a large measure of healthy skepticism about themselves!