Pundit predictions about the presidential race have been dismal. The Muse has not been any better. I predicted Bernie Sanders would give Hillary more of a run for her money. I predicted Trump would fade on at least 3 occasions (in writing). Little more than a month ago I was waxing eloquent at the dinner table that, "The GOP will not allow Trump to be the nominee."
Of course I was in good company. Very few of the 500 or so journalists, political scientists and pundits I follow on Twitter were clued into Trump's maddening resiliency. It didn't matter if they were PhD's from Tuft's Fletcher school or local reporters from Iowa or New Hampshire. Almost no one saw it coming. Now we are facing the GOPocolypse with a 70% (and rising) chance of Trump as the GOP nominee.
It's not just his shoot from the hip misogyny and racism, or his constant refrain that things "disgust" him. He a neophyte with little clue how government functions. To be sure he's hired lobbyist to hit up government on behalf of his interests, but that's just a citizen looking for help writ large. On foreign policy he's clearly out of his depth. He isn't all that familiar with the world map. He admires raw strength over moral strength. He wants to put us on an "equal basis" with Isis by torturing and murdering them the way they do to their victims. His trade policy would lead us out of the world market -- where our economic power makes us the main player on the world stage.
That Trumptastic Appeal
So why is he winning? What is it about him that people find so compelling? There's not a clear answer, but people often say they want to "shake things up" in Washington. Here's the Muse version. No group of people are more despised than Washington politicians. They stand for office on the same rhetoric year after year. They pander to interests and then say they "want to get things done in Washington." Yet progress is non-existent. People feel deceived because they vote for a change and get the same old same old. It's a huge carny show and people feel like they are the marks. With apologies to Senator Sanders, the game is rigged.
Enter Donald Trump -- a man so devoid of self-awareness he proclaims his chief consultant is himself because he, "has a really good brain." He waffles from one position to another like a creaky weather vane. He says silly, stupid things about torture, immigrants, violence and foreign policy – all with a wink and a nod. He gets away with it. His constituents eat it up. How is this working?
I believe his followers see him as amoral free agent. Trump is telling the truth about lying. He is saying, "I don't really care about character, policy, ideology or whatever. I will say whatever is needed and do whatever it takes to win." If that means pandering to white resentment and overt racism, so be it. That's just the cost of doing business. He's an honest panderer and people (his people anyway) seem to respond positively to that. He'll go to Washington and be a carny there. It's the Washington politicians who will be the marks this time. This is his promise -- his only real promise. This is what he means by "making America great again." He'll run riot through the halls of government. He'll burn the house down to save it. In this respect he seems authentic. And authenticity is selling this year ladies and gentlemen.
In some ways I applaud the sentiment and abhor the message. But even with backhanded admiration, Trump has practically no hope of succeeding. It's not enough to be a say-anything rabble rouser. Even if he wins against an admittedly weak candidate in Secretary Clinton, the president simply doesn't have the power Mr. Trump seems to think he has. The president's power resides in his influence -- his ability to project ideas and vision. There is almost nothing within the power of the president that cannot be checked by another branch of government. And even within the executive branch there are forces embedded within the huge, unwieldy, byzantine fortress that is the federal bureaucracy that are perfectly capable of putting the president on the slow burn.
Conclusion
Muse prediction: Trump will indeed win the GOP nomination and face Hillary Clinton in the general election. He will be defeated, but not "soundly" as the Democrats seems to believe. It will be a near thing. Why? Because his message resonates. In the end I believe she will win with 49 or 50 percent of the popular vote - eeking out a win in the Electoral College. Trump's showing will be (according the pundits) surprising, worrying, and "game-changing." After that who knows? It could serve as a wake-up call to both parties to come back from the brink. Let's hope so.
